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IPSOS SYNNOVATE VS INFOTRAK, WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH?

Opinion polls! opinion polls! Do they ever represent the actual thinking of the citizens. I don't think so. Opinion polls however in some insignificant proportion depict the political terrain.

Angela Ambitho- hope I got the name right has innuanded they worked with the Ghanaian and Tanzanian polls, where they accurately used statistical analysis to advise the respective contenders on campaign strategy. If they steered Nana Akufo Addo and Dr. John Pombe Magufuli to the crown, then they could be right, Raila is not on a trade mill but is a president in waiting.

I don't really understand how Angela though could say her poll is as old as yesterday. Did she do the sampling yesterday, analysed it and released it the same day. Perhaps she meant it was released yesterday.

My greatest concern over Tom Wolf's Ipsos Synnovate is their methodology. These people interviewed adults some of whom are neither registered voters nor are concerned with elections. As if that is not enough, their question was whether one would elect both Uhuru and Ruto or Raila and Kalonzo or others. This question somehow calls for a tribal answer, or in a more more eulogized manner a political affiliation.The respondent would not be giving his preferred candidate but his preferred combination.

On the other hand, Angela Ambitho- asked an open question of who one would vote for between Raila, Uhuru and the others. She therefore was able to get a more appropriate answer and because the nature of her question has tribal aura, she would get a more correct depiction of who is most popular presidential candidate. This is because the running mates do not influence much the presidential choice.

Another basis I find Synnovate way off, is their data of Jubilee having a mere 28% of the possible vote. If it were so, then Sonko and Kidero would not be head to head or neck to neck in the gubernatorial race. Sonko would be trailing by more than half, if we were to believe NASA has 64% in Nairobi

I also don't understand why Angelas Infotrak only sampled 31 counties instead of 47 counties. With an excuse of lack of funding and size of sample. The naked truth is that even though Ipsos claim they sampled randomly in all the 47 counties. A sample size of 2000 cannot adequately represent a population of more than 19 million registered voters.

As much as we would like to dismiss the polls. Sometimes they get it right. There are several limitations and challenges facing this kind of methodology especially on language barrier, confusion and misconception. Ethnicity and other socio cultural challenges too.

All said and done I chose to give Infotrak the benefit of doubt since I dont myself believe opinion polls.

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