“This time round I will not be running for presidency”, said
he. The words have created a hot debate on the dynamics of Kenyan politics.
Very soft, honest and sincere words he uttered but Peter Kenneth hardly knew
the political storm he was brewing by speaking his mind.
In 1978 former president Hon. Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, the
then vice president was laughed off as a passing wind. While Mzee was just
about to breath his last in his illness. An eleventh hour race to amend the constitution
with an aim of blocking Daniel Moi from sitting as interim president for 90
days, was flagged off. Only if wishes were horses but alas! Mzee died before
this selfish ambition matured.
Just as in football, performance history can perfectly foretell
future performance. Perhaps because naturally, history repeats itself.
Similarly in the Kenyan executive structure, history has not defied its order.
Right from the first time vice president Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was shown the door by former president
Mzee Jomo. There is no single time when
an outgoing president bequeathed the presidential mantle to his immediate
deputy. By this very fact deputy president, Hon. William Rutto will never be
endorsed by his boss President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Although it is both sad and worthy of note, Kenyan politics
is ethnic based; this is not bad in itself. There is no single instance when
the president’s community ever voted for a presidential candidate from another
community. To me there is nothing bad if people vote this way as long as they
have their own fundamental basis of doing that, even after civil education is
done. It will not be news if in 2022 deputy president garners ones and tens in
numbers of votes from the greater Gema conglomeration.
Peter Kenneth must be an astute politician to have figured
out the road to the presidency. There are many from the Gema communities, who
have in the past contested the presidency as underdogs alongside Gema favorites;
yet they did not garner a significant amount of vote from their community. This
partly demystifies the popular belief that our voting patterns are ethnically
inclined. Even in the intra-community contest there are those who are the best
picks.
This ingenious man must have unraveled the truth. He cannot
have his larger community support; neither can he fairly compete alongside
president Uhuru. The son of Jomo tried to contest alongside Emilio Kibaki in
2002 and though he had considerable support from the greater Gema block, the
lack of support from Kamatusa and western blocks caused him to fail.
He went back to the
drawing board and examined the prevailing politics. Consequently he agreed to
eat humble pie and rally behind mzee Kibaki in the 2007 elections. His close
association and partnership with the then incumbent president Kibaki, lead to
him being handed the button of mantle-ship by the Mount Kenya mafia in a
somewhat Machiavellian manner that automatically jostled out the then vice
president Kalonzo Musyoka.
With the invaluable support of the Rift valley Uhuru was
destined to be a favourite in the 2013 elections. Since history is not
disparaging, and with dissenting voices about the automatic endorsement of DP
rutto for presidency in 2022 already rocking the scene, the truth can be seen
from a far. Gema will not endorse Hon. Arap Rutto. Instead they will bequeath
their political blessings to another of their own, the handsome gentleman, Pk.
The amalgamation of Jubilee constituent parties corroborates
this argument. The Dp . Rutto will be left with no political vehicle at the
eleventh hour. Rummaging here and there during injury time, Willy will not be
able to form a viable brand of vehicle to transport him to statehouse. He will
neither consolidate sufficient support due to the minimal time to sell his
brand and agenda, nor will he find sympathy from the already structured Mount
Kenya mafia outfit. By the time the 2022 election comes Rutto’s home based
support would have dwindled to insignificant levels.
PK’s entry into the Nairobi gubernatorial race is a well
calculated move to endear him to the public euphoria. Nairobi county governor
logically is the third most powerful executive office. Most powerful people in
Nairobi have roots in Muranga and these could steer PK to the Nairobi County’s
most executive chair. Though Pk himself hails from Muranga, governing the
county would portray him as a community leader rather than a national leader.
This is why Peter Keneth will go for Nairobi governorship.
It appears that TNA has just found a good competitor for
governor Kidero. The TNA political
strategists are not leaving anything to chance. They have weighed and considered;
just in case Mudavadi becomes the Super Aliance flag bearer. Then Eugene
Wamalwa will be left with no votes on the table. In such case Dr. Kidero will
win before the sun rises.
It is not true that president Uhuru will win easily alongside
RAO but most probably Musalia Mudavadi will beat president Uhuru hands down. In
all this debate the greatest loser will be the Dp Rutto, his chances of
becoming the Jubilee flag bearer in 2022 is not just thin but there are no such
chances in the first place. The Jubilee party was born by their shared interest
in the ICC court cases without with it loses its meaning and reason for
existence. The Deputy President and other members of the JAP from the URP
faction could be viewing the Jap party as a tool for national cohesion but the
real architects and brains behind it see a contrivance to consolidate support
and create insurance for winning the 2017 presidential election as they mould
Peter Keneth for 2022.
Danish Makotcharo- Blogger
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